St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Tyler TuckerAssists1
- Tyler TuckerPoints1
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists2
- Darren RaddyshPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:36Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (21), Nikita Kucherov (32)1–4
- P28:01Anthony Cirelli Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (19)1–3
- P26:43Justin Faulk Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (5), Otto Stenberg (3)1–2
- P19:12Darren Raddysh Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (31), Jake Guentzel (20)0–2
- P10:21Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (18), Zemgus Girgensons (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:21Pontus Holmberg Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (18), Zemgus Girgensons (2)STL 0 – 1 TB · TB 68% → 80% +12TB 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P19:12Darren Raddysh Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (31), Jake Guentzel (20)STL 0 – 2 TB · TB 80% → 89% +9TB 80% → 89%+9 pts
- P26:43Justin Faulk Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Tucker (5), Otto Stenberg (3)STL 1 – 2 TB · STL 9% → 20% +11STL 9% → 20%+11 pts
- P28:01Anthony Cirelli Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Darren Raddysh (19)STL 1 – 3 TB · TB 80% → 91% +11TB 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P35:36Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (21), Nikita Kucherov (32)STL 1 – 4 TB · TB 96% → >99% +4TB 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- TB 69%
- ML STL +205 / TB -250
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 65.9%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -218
- STL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.2 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +15 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +114 Elo | TB 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 30th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.53rd of 32 |
| 25th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 32 |
| 29th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 32 |
| 24th of 321480 | Elo rating | 15435th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–16 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 17–3 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.