Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Aliaksei ProtasGoals1
- Aliaksei ProtasAssists2
- Aliaksei ProtasPoints3
Devils- Jesper BrattGoals2
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Jesper BrattPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:06Jakob Chychrun Goal (15) Batted, assists: Nic Dowd (6), Dylan Strome (21)4–3
- P39:17Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (9), Aliaksei Protas (13)3–3
- P37:32Cody Glass Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (7), Brenden Dillon (8)2–3
- P37:00Jesper Bratt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P217:33Anthony Beauvillier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (12)2–1
- P24:56Jesper Bratt Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (20), Stefan Noesen (4)1–1
- P119:59Aliaksei Protas Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:33Anthony Beauvillier Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (12)WSH 2 – 1 NJ · WSH 49% → 71% +23WSH 49% → 71%+23 pts
- P37:00Jesper Bratt Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWSH 2 – 2 NJ · NJ 22% → 51% +29NJ 22% → 51%+29 pts
- P37:32Cody Glass Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (7), Brenden Dillon (8)WSH 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 51% → 80% +29NJ 51% → 80%+29 pts
- P39:17Alex Ovechkin Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (9), Aliaksei Protas (13)WSH 3 – 3 NJ · WSH 19% → 49% +30WSH 19% → 49%+30 pts
- OT4:06Jakob Chychrun Goal (15) Batted, assists: Nic Dowd (6), Dylan Strome (21)WSH 4 – 3 NJ · WSH 50% → >99% +50WSH 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 52%
- ML WSH +100 / NJ -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 50.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.7 – 2.8 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +2 Elo | NJ 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 6th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.223rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 90.0%13th of 32 |
| 27th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 32 |
| 8th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 32 |
| 9th of 321523 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–16 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 4–18 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–4 NJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.