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New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, MNMT, MSG

Away

Rangers

19-18-5

3–6

at

Home

Capitals

21-14-5

NYR 45%WSH 55%

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Capital One Arena · ESPN+, MNMT, MSG

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.

WSH favored NYR favored9 scoring plays
P1P2P3WSH50%NYR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Rangers
Capitals

Scoring summary

  • P319:11Justin Sourdif Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (19), Aliaksei Protas (15)3–6
  • P318:16Braden Schneider Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Gabe Perreault (4)3–5
  • P316:37Tom Wilson Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (16)2–5
  • P313:34Aliaksei Protas Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Sandin (11), Nic Dowd (7)2–4
  • P215:17Adam Fox Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Artemi Panarin (27)2–3
  • P211:12Justin Sourdif Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19)1–3
  • P27:33Tom Wilson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (15), Rasmus Sandin (10)1–2
  • P119:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (26), Adam Fox (24)1–1
  • P112:27Anthony Beauvillier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (14), Matt Roy (10)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P112:27Anthony Beauvillier Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Leonard (14), Matt Roy (10)NYR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 55% → 70% +15
  2. P119:20Vincent Trocheck Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (26), Adam Fox (24)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · NYR 29% → 46% +17
  3. P27:33Tom Wilson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (15), Rasmus Sandin (10)NYR 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 54% → 72% +18
  4. P211:12Justin Sourdif Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19)NYR 1 – 3 WSH · WSH 73% → 87% +14
  5. P215:17Adam Fox Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (18), Artemi Panarin (27)NYR 2 – 3 WSH · NYR 11% → 26% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Capitals 55%

LeanHit
NYR 45%WSH 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
WSH 55%
ML NYR +114 / WSH -135
Pre-line forecast
WSH 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
WSH 56%
Ratings vs. market
+0.8 pts
WSH: Elo 55.9%, market 55.1%
Fair odds
WSH -123
NYR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYR 2.6 – 2.9 WSH
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYRWSHWhy
Team rating15001522Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2−13NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsWSH +41 EloWSH 55.9%
Market-implied ratingsWSH 61.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastWSH 60.6%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastWSH 55.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
New York Rangers and Washington Capitals compared, with each team's league rank
NYRStatWSH
30th of 322.6Goals scored3.212th of 32
4th of 322.7Goals allowed2.88th of 32
20th of 32−0.1Margin+0.36th of 32
24th of 3247.6%Shot share51.4%9th of 32
3rd of 3291.6%Save percentage90.7%8th of 32
18th of 324–6Last 103–726th of 32
5th of 3214–9Road vs home11–913th of 32
8th of 321503Opponent Elo15064th of 32
14th of 321500Elo rating15228th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RangersCapitals
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYRWSH
Puck line21–2022–17
Last 103–75–5
Favorite5–1712–14
Underdog16–310–3
Overs–unders14–2719–20
Overs–unders, last 103–75–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYR 7–6 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.