New York Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonny BrodzinskiGoals1
- Matthew RobertsonAssists1
- Jonny BrodzinskiPoints1
Hurricanes- Sebastian AhoGoals1
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Sebastian AhoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT4:47Jackson Blake Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (21), Nikolaj Ehlers (18)2–3
- P39:11Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7), K'Andre Miller (12)2–2
- P213:00Jonny Brodzinski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (6), Matthew Robertson (5)2–1
- P115:57Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (10), Nikolaj Ehlers (17)1–1
- P11:39Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (25), Vincent Trocheck (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:39Vladislav Gavrikov Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (25), Vincent Trocheck (13)NYR 1 – 0 CAR · NYR 39% → 54% +15NYR 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P115:57Sebastian Aho Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alexander Nikishin (10), Nikolaj Ehlers (17)NYR 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 43% → 59% +17CAR 43% → 59%+17 pts
- P213:00Jonny Brodzinski Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (6), Matthew Robertson (5)NYR 2 – 1 CAR · NYR 43% → 64% +21NYR 43% → 64%+21 pts
- P39:11Jordan Martinook Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Jalen Chatfield (7), K'Andre Miller (12)NYR 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 23% → 55% +32CAR 23% → 55%+32 pts
- OT4:47Jackson Blake Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Sebastian Aho (21), Nikolaj Ehlers (18)NYR 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 51% → >99% +49CAR 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 61%
- ML NYR +145 / CAR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CAR -156
- NYR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 2.4 – 3.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +8 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +85 Elo | CAR 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.55th of 32 |
| 24th of 3247.9% | Shot share | 56.9%1st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3291.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3214–8 | Road vs home | 12–73rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321502 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 32 |
| 14th of 321502 | Elo rating | 15445th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYR |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–20 | 14–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 12–22 |
| Underdog | 15–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–26 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYR 7–8 CAR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Nov 26NYR 4 @ CAR 2Picked CAR 63%Miss
- Nov 4CAR 3 @ NYR 0Picked CAR 51%Hit
- Apr 12NYR 3 @ CAR 7Picked CAR 64%Hit
- Jan 28CAR 4 @ NYR 0Picked CAR 55%Hit
- Dec 22CAR 3 @ NYR 1Picked CAR 57%Hit
- Nov 27NYR 3 @ CAR 4Picked CAR 62%Hit
- May 16NYR 5 @ CAR 3PlayoffsPicked CAR 55%Miss
- May 13CAR 4 @ NYR 1PlayoffsPicked NYR 55%Miss