Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Michael RasmussenGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Andrew CoppPoints1
Hurricanes- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:39Jordan Martinook Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (17), Shayne Gostisbehere (25)2–5
- P313:09Andrei Svechnikov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: none2–4
- P33:11Andrew Copp Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: John Leonard (2), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (11)2–3
- P215:22Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), William Carrier (5)1–3
- P24:37Eric Robinson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20), Andrei Svechnikov (16)1–2
- P23:22Jackson Blake Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (24)1–1
- P112:39Michael Rasmussen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:39Michael Rasmussen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (8)DET 1 – 0 CAR · DET 41% → 57% +16DET 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P23:22Jackson Blake Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (24)DET 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 40% → 58% +18CAR 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P24:37Eric Robinson Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (20), Andrei Svechnikov (16)DET 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 58% → 75% +17CAR 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P215:22Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jalen Chatfield (6), William Carrier (5)DET 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 77% → 90% +13CAR 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P33:11Andrew Copp Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: John Leonard (2), Axel Sandin-Pellikka (11)DET 2 – 3 CAR · DET 6% → 20% +14DET 6% → 20%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 60%
- ML DET +142 / CAR -170
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CAR: Elo 61.3%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -152
- DET +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +8 | DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · CAR: Brandon Bussi: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +80 Elo | CAR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 65.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.45th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.9% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 32 |
| 27th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 8th of 3210–8 | Road vs home | 11–75th of 32 |
| 29th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 32 |
| 14th of 321503 | Elo rating | 15416th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–20 | 13–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–5 CAR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.