Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Jamie BennGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Mikko RantanenPoints2
Red Wings- Dylan LarkinGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:34Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (23), Lucas Raymond (30)3–4
- P315:57Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2), Lucas Raymond (29)3–3
- P311:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (27), Mikko Rantanen (37)3–2
- P33:02Emmitt Finnie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (28), Moritz Seider (22)2–2
- P219:16Jamie Benn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Justin Hryckowian (7)2–1
- P210:47Roope Hintz Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (36), Jason Robertson (22)1–1
- P19:23James van Riemsdyk Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (6), Simon Edvinsson (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:16Jamie Benn Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (3), Justin Hryckowian (7)DAL 2 – 1 DET · DAL 52% → 75% +23DAL 52% → 75%+23 pts
- P33:02Emmitt Finnie Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (28), Moritz Seider (22)DAL 2 – 2 DET · DET 23% → 48% +25DET 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P311:18Wyatt Johnston Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (27), Mikko Rantanen (37)DAL 3 – 2 DET · DAL 51% → 84% +33DAL 51% → 84%+33 pts
- P315:57Dylan Larkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2), Lucas Raymond (29)DAL 3 – 3 DET · DET 8% → 49% +41DET 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT0:34Dylan Larkin Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (23), Lucas Raymond (30)DAL 3 – 4 DET · DET 49% → 91% +42DET 49% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 53%
- ML DAL -125 / DET +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +34 Elo | DAL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+1.0 | Margin | −0.116th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 51.9%7th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–6 | Road vs home | 11–89th of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149131st of 32 |
| 2nd of 321567 | Elo rating | 150014th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–20 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–20 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.