Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints3
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals3
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints4
Scoring summary
- P315:38Auston Matthews Goal (18) Backhand, assists: none5–6
- P313:13Troy Stecher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (9), Auston Matthews (13)5–5
- P38:50Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (25), Gustav Nyquist (8)5–4
- P36:30Matias Maccelli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (25), John Tavares (22)4–4
- P219:57Auston Matthews Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (21), Matias Maccelli (9)4–3
- P211:04Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (2)4–2
- P25:24Mark Scheifele Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (18), Neal Pionk (5)4–1
- P22:11Alex Iafallo Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Toews (9), Cole Perfetti (6)3–1
- P21:34Auston Matthews Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Max Domi (14), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (18)2–1
- P117:38Dylan DeMelo Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Adam Lowry (5), Morgan Barron (7)2–0
- P114:09Gabriel Vilardi Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (28), Kyle Connor (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P219:57Auston Matthews Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (21), Matias Maccelli (9)WPG 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 11% → 28% +17TOR 11% → 28%+17 pts
- P36:30Matias Maccelli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (25), John Tavares (22)WPG 4 – 4 TOR · TOR 24% → 52% +28TOR 24% → 52%+28 pts
- P38:50Mark Scheifele Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (25), Gustav Nyquist (8)WPG 5 – 4 TOR · WPG 48% → 79% +31WPG 48% → 79%+31 pts
- P313:13Troy Stecher Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby McMann (9), Auston Matthews (13)WPG 5 – 5 TOR · TOR 15% → 51% +37TOR 15% → 51%+37 pts
- P315:38Auston Matthews Goal (18) Backhand, assists: noneWPG 5 – 6 TOR · TOR 51% → 92% +40TOR 51% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML WPG +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 63.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- WPG +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.6 – 2.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −18 | +4 | WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.45 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +92 Elo | TOR 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.324th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.2% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 13–1012th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149331st of 32 |
| 10th of 321514 | Elo rating | 15199th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–21 | 16–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–3 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.