New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Maple Leafs- Calle JarnkrokGoals1
- Nick RobertsonAssists2
- Nick RobertsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:01Matthew Knies Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (21), Nicolas Roy (10)0–4
- P36:35Calle Jarnkrok Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (7)0–3
- P214:24Nicolas Roy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (8), Nicholas Robertson (11)0–2
- P114:21Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:21Bobby McMann Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (10)NJ 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 44% → 61% +17TOR 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P214:24Nicolas Roy Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Bobby McMann (8), Nicholas Robertson (11)NJ 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 68% → 84% +17TOR 68% → 84%+17 pts
- P36:35Calle Jarnkrok Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (7)NJ 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 93% → 99% +6TOR 93% → 99%+6 pts
- P317:01Matthew Knies Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (21), Nicolas Roy (10)NJ 0 – 4 TOR · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML NJ -142 / TOR +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.9 pts
- NJ: Elo 40.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 2.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 46.5%30th of 32 |
| 12th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.8%13th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 10th of 3210–9 | Road vs home | 12–1016th of 32 |
| 4th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321485 | Elo rating | 151511th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–24 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–19 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.