Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Nick RobertsonGoals1
- John TavaresAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Red Wings- Simon EdvinssonGoals1
- Michael RasmussenAssists1
- Mason AppletonPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:46Simon Edvinsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P35:16Mason Appleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (7), Albert Johansson (5)2–2
- P34:53Nicholas Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (20)2–1
- P219:01Moritz Seider Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (31)1–1
- P24:25Matthew Knies Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), John Tavares (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:25Matthew Knies Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (12), John Tavares (19)TOR 1 – 0 DET · TOR 45% → 64% +19TOR 45% → 64%+19 pts
- P219:01Moritz Seider Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (31)TOR 1 – 1 DET · DET 30% → 54% +24DET 30% → 54%+24 pts
- P34:53Nicholas Robertson Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (20)TOR 2 – 1 DET · TOR 47% → 74% +27TOR 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P35:16Mason Appleton Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Rasmussen (7), Albert Johansson (5)TOR 2 – 2 DET · DET 26% → 53% +28DET 26% → 53%+28 pts
- OT1:46Simon Edvinsson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneTOR 2 – 3 DET · DET 51% → 95% +43DET 51% → 95%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML TOR +120 / DET -142
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- DET: Elo 54.2%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | DET and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +3 | TOR: Dennis Hildeby: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · DET: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +29 Elo | DET 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 30th of 3246.6% | Shot share | 51.4%10th of 32 |
| 14th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 31st of 325–10 | Road vs home | 12–87th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 32 |
| 11th of 321517 | Elo rating | 149915th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–23 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–17 | 4–15 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–15 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–5 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.