Winnipeg Jets at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints2
Mammoth- Clayton KellerGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:13Clayton Keller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (14), Mikhail Sergachev (21)3–4
- P315:48Morgan Barron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (2)3–3
- P315:23Kyle Connor Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (24), Mark Scheifele (26)2–3
- P211:18Kyle Connor Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (25), Gabriel Vilardi (15)1–3
- P23:01Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (7), Mikhail Sergachev (20)0–3
- P19:31JJ Peterka Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (20), Nick Schmaltz (20)0–2
- P15:20Lawson Crouse Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (13), Barrett Hayton (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:20Lawson Crouse Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (13), Barrett Hayton (4)WPG 0 – 1 UTA · UTA 52% → 67% +15UTA 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P19:31JJ Peterka Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Clayton Keller (20), Nick Schmaltz (20)WPG 0 – 2 UTA · UTA 68% → 80% +13UTA 68% → 80%+13 pts
- P23:01Alexander Kerfoot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Durzi (7), Mikhail Sergachev (20)WPG 0 – 3 UTA · UTA 84% → 93% +9UTA 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P315:48Morgan Barron Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (2)WPG 3 – 3 UTA · WPG 8% → 49% +41WPG 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT0:13Clayton Keller Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (14), Mikhail Sergachev (21)WPG 3 – 4 UTA · UTA 51% → 91% +40UTA 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 53%
- ML WPG +102 / UTA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- UTA: Elo 50.0%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- UTA -111
- WPG +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.7 – 2.8 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +6 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · UTA: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG 0 Elo | WPG 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.1% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 25th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 8–714th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 9th of 321525 | Elo rating | 149417th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–19 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 2–3 UTA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.
