Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20)

Away

Jets

15-17-2

2–3

at

Home

Avalanche

25-2-7

WPG 34%COL 66%

You didn't pick this one.

Ball Arena · ESPN+, Altitude Sports, KTVD-TV (My20)

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.

COL favored WPG favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3COL50%WPG

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche

Scoring summary

  • P33:38Mark Scheifele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (7)2–3
  • P31:58Parker Kelly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (10), Valeri Nichushkin (11)1–3
  • P219:22Morgan Barron Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (7)1–2
  • P115:05Martin Necas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (31), Artturi Lehkonen (16)0–2
  • P19:45Brent Burns Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (9), Joel Kiviranta (2)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:45Brent Burns Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (9), Joel Kiviranta (2)WPG 0 – 1 COL · COL 64% → 78% +13
  2. P115:05Martin Necas Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (31), Artturi Lehkonen (16)WPG 0 – 2 COL · COL 78% → 88% +10
  3. P219:22Morgan Barron Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Alex Iafallo (7)WPG 1 – 2 COL · WPG 7% → 19% +13
  4. P31:58Parker Kelly Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (10), Valeri Nichushkin (11)WPG 1 – 3 COL · COL 81% → 94% +13
  5. P33:38Mark Scheifele Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (7)WPG 2 – 3 COL · WPG 5% → 18% +13

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Avalanche 66%

SolidHit
WPG 34%COL 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.

Market
COL 66%
ML WPG +180 / COL -218
Pre-line forecast
COL 67%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
COL 64%
Ratings vs. market
−2.1 pts
COL: Elo 63.6%, market 65.7%
Fair odds
COL -192
WPG +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
WPG 2.8 – 3.7 COL
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorWPGCOLWhy
Team rating15271591Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+11+9WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCOL +97 EloCOL 63.6%
Market-implied ratingsCOL 67.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCOL 66.7%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCOL 65.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche compared, with each team's league rank
WPGStatCOL
22nd of 323.0Goals scored4.01st of 32
14th of 323.0Goals allowed2.31st of 32
17th of 32−0.1Margin+1.71st of 32
25th of 3248.1%Shot share56.2%2nd of 32
11th of 3290.1%Save percentage92.0%2nd of 32
26th of 323–7Last 107–31st of 32
23rd of 327–10Road vs home13–21st of 32
28th of 321494Opponent Elo149031st of 32
10th of 321527Elo rating15911st of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

JetsAvalanche
14501500155016001650league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonWPGCOL
Puck line14–1919–14
Last 104–65–5
Favorite10–1518–14
Underdog4–41–0
Overs–unders18–1514–19
Overs–unders, last 105–55–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

WPG 7–5 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.