Colorado Avalanche at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Kraken- Shane WrightGoals1
- Kaapo KakkoAssists1
- Jordan EberlePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:36Nathan MacKinnon Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (10), Gabriel Landeskog (10)5–3
- P38:25Brock Nelson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (30), Cale Makar (30)4–3
- P32:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (29), Martin Necas (31)3–3
- P219:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (12), Vince Dunn (14)2–3
- P213:29Samuel Girard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (9), Brent Burns (14)2–2
- P25:48Jordan Eberle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Adam Larsson (6), Matty Beniers (14)1–2
- P23:03Shane Wright Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jani Nyman (1), Kaapo Kakko (3)1–1
- P112:19Artturi Lehkonen Goal (13) Deflected, assists: Martin Necas (30), Josh Manson (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:48Jordan Eberle Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Adam Larsson (6), Matty Beniers (14)COL 1 – 2 SEA · SEA 32% → 51% +19SEA 32% → 51%+19 pts
- P213:29Samuel Girard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (9), Brent Burns (14)COL 2 – 2 SEA · COL 45% → 66% +21COL 45% → 66%+21 pts
- P219:24Chandler Stephenson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (12), Vince Dunn (14)COL 2 – 3 SEA · SEA 36% → 60% +24SEA 36% → 60%+24 pts
- P32:40Nathan MacKinnon Goal (27) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (29), Martin Necas (31)COL 3 – 3 SEA · COL 37% → 63% +27COL 37% → 63%+27 pts
- P38:25Brock Nelson Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (30), Cale Makar (30)COL 4 – 3 SEA · COL 61% → 87% +26COL 61% → 87%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 73%
- ML COL -325 / SEA +260
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- COL: Elo 64.8%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -275
- SEA +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 2.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −13 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +106 Elo | COL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 66.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | −0.631st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.4% | Shot share | 48.0%24th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 1st of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–832nd of 32 |
| 5th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 7–924th of 32 |
| 29th of 321490 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 1st of 321588 | Elo rating | 145630th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–14 | 19–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–14 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 12–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–1 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.