Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Gabriel VilardiAssists2
- Mark ScheifelePoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:39Matt Boldy Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (27), Kirill Kaprizov (23)4–3
- P319:38Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (22), Quinn Hughes (26)3–3
- P219:57Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (7)2–3
- P217:56Kyle Connor Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (27), Gabriel Vilardi (17)2–2
- P27:33Kirill Kaprizov Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (13), Danila Yurov (9)2–1
- P118:29Matt Boldy Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Jared Spurgeon (7), Quinn Hughes (25)1–1
- P111:36Josh Morrissey Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (27), Gabriel Vilardi (16)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:33Kirill Kaprizov Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Mats Zuccarello (13), Danila Yurov (9)MIN 2 – 1 WPG · MIN 51% → 70% +19MIN 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P217:56Kyle Connor Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (27), Gabriel Vilardi (17)MIN 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 27% → 49% +23WPG 27% → 49%+23 pts
- P219:57Mark Scheifele Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (7)MIN 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 49% → 73% +24WPG 49% → 73%+24 pts
- P319:38Mats Zuccarello Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (22), Quinn Hughes (26)MIN 3 – 3 WPG · MIN <1% → 50% +50MIN <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT0:39Matt Boldy Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (27), Kirill Kaprizov (23)MIN 4 – 3 WPG · MIN 50% → 91% +41MIN 50% → 91%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / WPG -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 45.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +8 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +35 Elo | WPG 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 3248.7% | Shot share | 48.2%22nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.1% | Save percentage | 89.9%15th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 7th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 32 |
| 7th of 321524 | Elo rating | 152310th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–16 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 1–8 WPG in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.