Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Nathan MacKinnonGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints3
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:35Nathan MacKinnon Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (11), Valeri Nichushkin (13)5–1
- P315:52Brock Nelson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6), Valeri Nichushkin (12)4–1
- P35:15Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (7), Kirill Kaprizov (20)3–1
- P218:33Cale Makar Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (11), Gabriel Landeskog (12)3–0
- P213:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (10), Cale Makar (32)2–0
- P118:28Martin Necas Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (31), Gabriel Landeskog (11)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:28Martin Necas Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (31), Gabriel Landeskog (11)COL 1 – 0 MIN · COL 59% → 74% +16COL 59% → 74%+16 pts
- P213:37Nathan MacKinnon Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (10), Cale Makar (32)COL 2 – 0 MIN · COL 77% → 90% +13COL 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P218:33Cale Makar Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (11), Gabriel Landeskog (12)COL 3 – 0 MIN · COL 92% → 98% +6COL 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P35:15Ryan Hartman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (7), Kirill Kaprizov (20)COL 3 – 1 MIN · MIN <1% → 5% +4MIN <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P315:52Brock Nelson Goal (14) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (6), Valeri Nichushkin (12)COL 4 – 1 MIN · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML COL -170 / MIN +142
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- COL: Elo 55.4%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1593 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +12 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +38 Elo | COL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 324.0 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.3 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.63rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3256.1% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3291.9% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 3rd of 3211–7 | Road vs home | 13–73rd of 32 |
| 31st of 321491 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 32 |
| 1st of 321593 | Elo rating | 15327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–15 | 22–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–15 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–3 MIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.