Edmonton Oilers at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Wild- Matt BoldyGoals2
- Mats ZuccarelloAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:35Nico Sturm Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (12), Marcus Johansson (16)2–5
- P39:08Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (9)2–4
- P119:52Ryan Hartman Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Mats Zuccarello (12)2–3
- P118:44Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (33), Zach Hyman (6)2–2
- P113:35Andrew Mangiapane Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (27), Leon Draisaitl (32)1–2
- P110:56Matt Boldy Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (23), Mats Zuccarello (11)0–2
- P13:42Matt Boldy Goal (21) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:42Matt Boldy Goal (21) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 69% +14MIN 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P113:35Andrew Mangiapane Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (27), Leon Draisaitl (32)EDM 1 – 2 MIN · EDM 17% → 30% +13EDM 17% → 30%+13 pts
- P118:44Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (33), Zach Hyman (6)EDM 2 – 2 MIN · EDM 29% → 46% +17EDM 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P119:52Ryan Hartman Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (7), Mats Zuccarello (12)EDM 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 54% → 71% +17MIN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P39:08Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Yakov Trenin (9)EDM 2 – 4 MIN · MIN 82% → 96% +14MIN 82% → 96%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML EDM +114 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 51.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 27th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.64th of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.1% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 329–12 | Road vs home | 12–76th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 5th of 321544 | Elo rating | 15288th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–20 | 21–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 7–11 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 14–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.