Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints2
Wild- Brock FaberGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists1
- Joel Eriksson EkPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:53Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Erik Haula (14), Nick Blankenburg (11)3–2
- P20:52Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (17), Kirill Kaprizov (21)2–2
- P117:07Roman Josi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (21), Filip Forsberg (13)2–1
- P114:28Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Steven Stamkos (7)1–1
- P17:00Brock Faber Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (24), Nico Sturm (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Brock Faber Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (24), Nico Sturm (4)NSH 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 62% → 75% +14MIN 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P114:28Ryan O'Reilly Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Luke Evangelista (20), Steven Stamkos (7)NSH 1 – 1 MIN · NSH 24% → 39% +15NSH 24% → 39%+15 pts
- P117:07Roman Josi Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (21), Filip Forsberg (13)NSH 2 – 1 MIN · NSH 40% → 57% +17NSH 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P20:52Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (17), Kirill Kaprizov (21)NSH 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 42% → 60% +18MIN 42% → 60%+18 pts
- OT0:53Steven Stamkos Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Erik Haula (14), Nick Blankenburg (11)NSH 3 – 2 MIN · NSH 47% → 91% +44NSH 47% → 91%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML NSH +154 / MIN -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 63.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -165
- NSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −1 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +99 Elo | MIN 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.62nd of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.54th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.0% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 28th of 325–8 | Road vs home | 13–84th of 32 |
| 1st of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 29th of 321460 | Elo rating | 15277th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–19 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–5 MIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.