Winnipeg Jets at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Jonathan ToewsAssists1
- Jonathan ToewsPoints1
Red Wings- Mason AppletonGoals1
- J.T. CompherAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:04Logan Stanley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (8)1–2
- P114:48Mason Appleton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (9), Michael Rasmussen (8)0–2
- P18:22Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (24), Lucas Raymond (32)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:22Dylan Larkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (24), Lucas Raymond (32)WPG 0 – 1 DET · DET 48% → 64% +15DET 48% → 64%+15 pts
- P114:48Mason Appleton Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (9), Michael Rasmussen (8)WPG 0 – 2 DET · DET 65% → 79% +14DET 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P37:04Logan Stanley Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Toews (8)WPG 1 – 2 DET · WPG 6% → 22% +16WPG 6% → 22%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 52%
- ML WPG -118 / DET -102
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- WPG: Elo 47.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WPG -107
- DET +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −1 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · DET: John Gibson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 22nd of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 32 |
| 21st of 3249.0% | Shot share | 51.6%8th of 32 |
| 16th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 89.0%24th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 29th of 327–12 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 10th of 321516 | Elo rating | 150113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–20 | 18–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–15 | 4–16 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.