Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Jets- Adam LowryGoals1
- Morgan BarronAssists1
- Adam LowryPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:37Zach Hyman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (45)3–1
- P35:46Adam Lowry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (6)2–1
- P212:49Jack Roslovic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (8), Matt Savoie (6)2–0
- P28:00Max Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:00Max Jones Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 0 WPG · EDM 51% → 70% +19EDM 51% → 70%+19 pts
- P212:49Jack Roslovic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (8), Matt Savoie (6)EDM 2 – 0 WPG · EDM 71% → 86% +15EDM 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P35:46Adam Lowry Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Morgan Barron (6)EDM 2 – 1 WPG · WPG 7% → 22% +16WPG 7% → 22%+16 pts
- P318:37Zach Hyman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (45)EDM 3 – 1 WPG · EDM >99% → >99% +1EDM >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 51%
- ML EDM -115 / WPG -105
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 47.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- EDM -104
- WPG +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.3 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +6 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +17 Elo | WPG 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 51.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.922nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.122nd of 32 |
| 9th of 3251.5% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 32 |
| 30th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%15th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 25th of 329–14 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 6th of 321543 | Elo rating | 152010th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–23 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–20 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–3 WPG in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.