Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists5
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Scoring summary
- P35:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (9), Connor McDavid (44)1–5
- P211:56Zach Hyman Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (43)1–4
- P21:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (42), Evan Bouchard (29)1–3
- P119:43Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (8), Connor McDavid (41)1–2
- P115:58MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (13)1–1
- P16:48Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (28), Connor McDavid (40)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:48Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (28), Connor McDavid (40)CGY 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 59% → 73% +14EDM 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P115:58MacKenzie Weegar Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (13)CGY 1 – 1 EDM · CGY 26% → 42% +15CGY 26% → 42%+15 pts
- P119:43Leon Draisaitl Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (8), Connor McDavid (41)CGY 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 58% → 74% +16EDM 58% → 74%+16 pts
- P21:59Leon Draisaitl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (42), Evan Bouchard (29)CGY 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 74% → 87% +12EDM 74% → 87%+12 pts
- P211:56Zach Hyman Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (43)CGY 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 89% → 96% +7EDM 89% → 96%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 59%
- ML CGY +136 / EDM -162
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 61.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- EDM -146
- CGY +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −6 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +80 Elo | EDM 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 60.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.4% | Shot share | 51.1%11th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.2%31st of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326–14 | Road vs home | 9–66th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 21st of 321485 | Elo rating | 15425th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CGY |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–13 | 15–22 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–13 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CGY 3–5 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.