Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Frederick GaudreauAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints1
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals2
- Jonathan HuberdeauAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:52Mikael Backlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Nazem Kadri (23), Joel Farabee (9)2–4
- P311:19Matt Coronato Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (12)2–3
- P310:04Nazem Kadri Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (17), Morgan Frost (11)2–2
- P217:16Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (5), Jani Nyman (2)2–1
- P210:20Mikael Backlund Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (16), Joel Hanley (5)1–1
- P27:52Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (13), Freddy Gaudreau (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:52Chandler Stephenson Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (13), Freddy Gaudreau (4)SEA 1 – 0 CGY · SEA 42% → 62% +20SEA 42% → 62%+20 pts
- P210:20Mikael Backlund Goal (6) Deflected, assists: Rasmus Andersson (16), Joel Hanley (5)SEA 1 – 1 CGY · CGY 37% → 58% +20CGY 37% → 58%+20 pts
- P217:16Kaapo Kakko Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (5), Jani Nyman (2)SEA 2 – 1 CGY · SEA 43% → 66% +23SEA 43% → 66%+23 pts
- P310:04Nazem Kadri Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (17), Morgan Frost (11)SEA 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 22% → 54% +33CGY 22% → 54%+33 pts
- P311:19Matt Coronato Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Andersson (18), Jonathan Huberdeau (12)SEA 2 – 3 CGY · CGY 54% → 86% +31CGY 54% → 86%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flames 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CGY 61%
- ML SEA +145 / CGY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CGY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CGY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- CGY: Elo 58.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CGY -156
- SEA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.4 – 3.1 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +60 Elo | CGY 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CGY 61.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CGY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.527th of 32 |
| 25th of 3248.0% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–9 | Road vs home | 7–717th of 32 |
| 14th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 32 |
| 29th of 321454 | Elo rating | 147723rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–12 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 CGY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.