Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN+, Scripps Sports

Away

Golden Knights

16-8-10

3–4

at

Home

Oilers

18-13-6

VGK 47%EDM 53%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · ESPN+, Scripps Sports

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VGK favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VGK

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Golden Knights

Scoring summary

  • P35:49Mitch Marner Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (13), Noah Hanifin (8)3–4
  • P33:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (12), Noah Hanifin (7)2–4
  • P212:59Tomas Hertl Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (29), Noah Hanifin (6)1–4
  • P27:45Zach Hyman Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Darnell Nurse (8), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (20)0–4
  • P22:22Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (39), Zach Hyman (7)0–3
  • P114:37Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Connor McDavid (38)0–2
  • P19:11Connor McDavid Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Alec Regula (3)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P19:11Connor McDavid Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (34), Alec Regula (3)VGK 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 53% → 68% +15
  2. P114:37Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (35), Connor McDavid (38)VGK 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 69% → 82% +13
  3. P22:22Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (39), Zach Hyman (7)VGK 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 84% → 93% +9
  4. P33:52Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (12), Noah Hanifin (7)VGK 2 – 4 EDM · VGK 2% → 7% +6
  5. P35:49Mitch Marner Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (13), Noah Hanifin (8)VGK 3 – 4 EDM · VGK 6% → 21% +15

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Oilers 53%

Toss-upHit
VGK 47%EDM 53%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
EDM 53%
ML VGK +105 / EDM -125
Pre-line forecast
EDM 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 56%
Ratings vs. market
+2.6 pts
EDM: Elo 55.9%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
EDM -114
VGK +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VGK 3.2 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVGKEDMWhy
Team rating15221540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Rest−30−30EDM and VGK on the second night of a back-to-back
Starting goalies+5−7VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +41 EloEDM 55.9%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 50.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 51.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastEDM 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VGKStatEDM
18th of 323.0Goals scored3.45th of 32
12th of 323.0Goals allowed3.431st of 32
11th of 32+0.1Margin−0.117th of 32
3rd of 3254.3%Shot share51.4%8th of 32
21st of 3289.4%Save percentage88.1%32nd of 32
8th of 326–4Last 106–48th of 32
12th of 329–8Road vs home8–610th of 32
23rd of 321496Opponent Elo150016th of 32
10th of 321522Elo rating15406th of 32

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Golden KnightsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonVGKEDM
Puck line8–2515–21
Last 101–96–4
Favorite5–2410–18
Underdog3–15–3
Overs–unders16–1721–15
Overs–unders, last 104–66–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

VGK 4–8 EDM in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.