Vegas Golden Knights at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mark StonePoints2
Flames- Mikael BacklundGoals2
- Connor ZaryAssists3
- Mikael BacklundPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:15Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (12), Blake Coleman (7)3–6
- P316:03Mark Stone Goal (7) Batted, assists: Noah Hanifin (5), Mitch Marner (28)3–5
- P214:34Kaedan Korczak Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (27), Tomas Hertl (11)2–5
- P212:21Joel Farabee Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (9)1–5
- P28:38Mikael Backlund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (8), Connor Zary (6)1–4
- P115:45Ryan Lomberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (5), John Beecher (2)1–3
- P110:03Reilly Smith Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (20), Zach Whitecloud (4)1–2
- P18:42Adam Klapka Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (4), MacKenzie Weegar (7)0–2
- P13:54Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (6), Connor Zary (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:54Mikael Backlund Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Blake Coleman (6), Connor Zary (4)VGK 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 46% → 61% +15CGY 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P18:42Adam Klapka Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Yan Kuznetsov (4), MacKenzie Weegar (7)VGK 0 – 2 CGY · CGY 62% → 75% +14CGY 62% → 75%+14 pts
- P110:03Reilly Smith Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Mark Stone (20), Zach Whitecloud (4)VGK 1 – 2 CGY · VGK 24% → 38% +14VGK 24% → 38%+14 pts
- P115:45Ryan Lomberg Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Zary (5), John Beecher (2)VGK 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 63% → 78% +15CGY 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P28:38Mikael Backlund Goal (9) Backhand, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (8), Connor Zary (6)VGK 1 – 4 CGY · CGY 82% → 92% +10CGY 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 54%
- ML VGK -130 / CGY +110
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- CGY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −9 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · CGY: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +24 Elo | VGK 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3254.1% | Shot share | 51.7%8th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.1%9th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 7th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 8–713th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 8–24 | 22–13 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–23 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 6–4 CGY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.