Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Flames- Ryan LombergGoals1
- Adam KlapkaAssists1
- Blake ColemanPoints1
Scoring summary
- P315:23Connor McDavid Goal (24) Poke, assists: Zach Hyman (10), Evan Bouchard (30)2–3
- P312:31Blake Coleman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14), Kevin Bahl (4)1–3
- P23:28Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none1–2
- P18:36Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (36), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21)1–1
- P17:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Yegor Sharangovich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Klapka (5)EDM 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 43% → 59% +15CGY 43% → 59%+15 pts
- P18:36Evan Bouchard Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (36), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (21)EDM 1 – 1 CGY · EDM 41% → 57% +16EDM 41% → 57%+16 pts
- P23:28Ryan Lomberg Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 2 CGY · CGY 44% → 63% +18CGY 44% → 63%+18 pts
- P312:31Blake Coleman Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (14), Kevin Bahl (4)EDM 1 – 3 CGY · CGY 83% → 98% +14CGY 83% → 98%+14 pts
- P315:23Connor McDavid Goal (24) Poke, assists: Zach Hyman (10), Evan Bouchard (30)EDM 2 – 3 CGY · EDM <1% → 10% +10EDM <1% → 10%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 57%
- ML EDM -148 / CGY +124
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- EDM: Elo 53.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- EDM -134
- CGY +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.5 – 3.0 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +4 | EDM: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +24 Elo | EDM 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CGY 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 50.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.6% | Shot share | 50.9%13th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 23rd of 329–13 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 5th of 321546 | Elo rating | 148121st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–22 | 23–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–19 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 6–3 CGY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.