Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Martin NecasGoals2
- Sam MalinskiAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Golden Knights- Alexander HoltzGoals1
- Noah HanifinAssists2
- Alexander HoltzPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nathan MacKinnon Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Mitch Marner Goal Backhand2–1
- SO0:00Martin Necas Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P318:03Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (33), Brock Nelson (12)5–5
- P316:00Colton Sissons Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Keegan Kolesar (6), Kaedan Korczak (6)4–5
- P38:21Nathan MacKinnon Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (18), Gabriel Landeskog (13)4–4
- P33:52Martin Necas Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (32)3–4
- P212:05Brett Howden Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Reilly Smith (5), Jeremy Lauzon (5)2–4
- P211:36Ben Hutton Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (1), Noah Hanifin (11)2–3
- P210:27Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (17), Samuel Girard (7)2–2
- P25:19Samuel Girard Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (16), Valeri Nichushkin (14)1–2
- P20:34Ivan Barbashev Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (30)0–2
- P12:43Alexander Holtz Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (10), Tomas Hertl (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:27Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (17), Samuel Girard (7)COL 2 – 2 VGK · COL 35% → 56% +20COL 35% → 56%+20 pts
- P211:36Ben Hutton Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Holtz (1), Noah Hanifin (11)COL 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 44% → 65% +21VGK 44% → 65%+21 pts
- P38:21Nathan MacKinnon Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (18), Gabriel Landeskog (13)COL 4 – 4 VGK · COL 23% → 54% +31COL 23% → 54%+31 pts
- P316:00Colton Sissons Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Keegan Kolesar (6), Kaedan Korczak (6)COL 4 – 5 VGK · VGK 48% → 91% +43VGK 48% → 91%+43 pts
- P318:03Artturi Lehkonen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (33), Brock Nelson (12)COL 5 – 5 VGK · COL 2% → 52% +49COL 2% → 52%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 58%
- ML COL -155 / VGK +130
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- COL: Elo 56.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -140
- VGK +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 3.0 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +4 | COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +47 Elo | COL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.9 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 1st of 322.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.7 | Margin | +0.28th of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.9% | Shot share | 54.4%3rd of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3212–7 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 32 |
| 31st of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 32 |
| 1st of 321598 | Elo rating | 15239th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–16 | 10–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 14–22 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 VGK in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.