Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mammoth
AvalancheScoring summary
- P27:57Samuel Girard Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:57Samuel Girard Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneUTA 0 – 1 COL · COL 65% → 81% +16COL 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- COL 70%
- ML UTA +220 / COL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- COL: Elo 71.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- COL -234
- UTA +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTA 2.7 – 3.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +9 | UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · COL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +160 Elo | COL 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 68.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 10th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.2% | Shot share | 56.2%2nd of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 24th of 329–13 | Road vs home | 14–21st of 32 |
| 25th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149231st of 32 |
| 16th of 321496 | Elo rating | 15971st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 16–22 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 19–15 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTA 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.
