San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists2
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Golden Knights- Mitch MarnerGoals2
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:04Collin Graf Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (15), Alexander Wennberg (16)2–7
- P35:22Mitch Marner Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (21), Ivan Barbashev (16)1–7
- P218:50Reilly Smith Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Kaedan Korczak (5), Braeden Bowman (8)1–6
- P26:49Macklin Celebrini Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (14)1–5
- P118:34Mark Stone Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Kaedan Korczak (4)0–5
- P114:57Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (10)0–4
- P111:37Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (5), Brandon Saad (4)0–3
- P19:07Mitch Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (9), Pavel Dorofeyev (9)0–2
- P11:46Brett Howden Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (7), Reilly Smith (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:46Brett Howden Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (7), Reilly Smith (4)SJ 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 63% → 76% +13VGK 63% → 76%+13 pts
- P19:07Mitch Marner Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (9), Pavel Dorofeyev (9)SJ 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 76% → 87% +10VGK 76% → 87%+10 pts
- P111:37Colton Sissons Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (5), Brandon Saad (4)SJ 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 87% → 94% +7VGK 87% → 94%+7 pts
- P114:57Tomas Hertl Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (10)SJ 0 – 4 VGK · VGK 94% → 98% +4VGK 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P118:34Mark Stone Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Ivan Barbashev (15), Kaedan Korczak (4)SJ 0 – 5 VGK · VGK 98% → >99% +1VGK 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 64%
- ML SJ +164 / VGK -198
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 69.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -175
- SJ +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +3 | SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +145 Elo | VGK 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 71.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.3% | Shot share | 54.4%3rd of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.2%23rd of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 21st of 327–9 | Road vs home | 7–924th of 32 |
| 4th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321415 | Elo rating | 152010th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–12 | 9–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–24 |
| Underdog | 24–11 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SJ 0–9 VGK in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.