Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Chandler StephensonGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists1
- Chandler StephensonPoints2
Sharks- Collin GrafGoals1
- Igor ChernyshovAssists1
- Adam GaudettePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:36Chandler Stephenson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (14), Joey Daccord (2)4–2
- P34:27Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (12), Freddy Gaudreau (5)3–2
- P31:55Ryker Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P30:36Collin Graf Goal (9) , assists: none1–2
- P211:22Adam Gaudette Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Igor Chernyshov (3), Macklin Celebrini (36)1–1
- P26:52Eeli Tolvanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:52Eeli Tolvanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 1 – 0 SJ · SEA 47% → 66% +19SEA 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P211:22Adam Gaudette Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Igor Chernyshov (3), Macklin Celebrini (36)SEA 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 32% → 53% +20SJ 32% → 53%+20 pts
- P30:36Collin Graf Goal (9) , assists: noneSEA 1 – 2 SJ · SJ 52% → 76% +23SJ 52% → 76%+23 pts
- P31:55Ryker Evans Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 2 – 2 SJ · SEA 23% → 48% +24SEA 23% → 48%+24 pts
- P34:27Ryan Lindgren Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (12), Freddy Gaudreau (5)SEA 3 – 2 SJ · SEA 48% → 75% +27SEA 48% → 75%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- SJ 54%
- ML SEA +110 / SJ -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- SJ: Elo 49.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SJ -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.1 – 3.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −2 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · SJ: Yaroslav Askarov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SJ 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.020th of 32 |
| 19th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.7 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 44.0%32nd of 32 |
| 13th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%14th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 29th of 325–10 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 32 |
| 15th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 32 |
| 30th of 321451 | Elo rating | 141932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–13 | 24–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–5 SJ in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.