Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists3
- Marcus JohanssonPoints4
Golden Knights- Mark StoneGoals1
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:14Mark Stone Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (18), Mitch Marner (31)5–2
- P216:50Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (17), Pavel Dorofeyev (11)5–1
- P26:56Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Matt Boldy (22), Marcus Johansson (20)5–0
- P24:32Brock Faber Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (10), Kirill Kaprizov (24)4–0
- P20:26Jared Spurgeon Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (19), Jonas Brodin (9)3–0
- P114:06Matt Boldy Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (19), Marcus Johansson (18)2–0
- P10:26Marcus Johansson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8), Jared Spurgeon (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:26Marcus Johansson Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Jonas Brodin (8), Jared Spurgeon (8)MIN 1 – 0 VGK · MIN 49% → 63% +14MIN 49% → 63%+14 pts
- P114:06Matt Boldy Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (19), Marcus Johansson (18)MIN 2 – 0 VGK · MIN 65% → 79% +14MIN 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P20:26Jared Spurgeon Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (19), Jonas Brodin (9)MIN 3 – 0 VGK · MIN 81% → 91% +10MIN 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P24:32Brock Faber Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (10), Kirill Kaprizov (24)MIN 4 – 0 VGK · MIN 92% → 97% +5MIN 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P32:14Mark Stone Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (18), Mitch Marner (31)MIN 5 – 2 VGK · VGK <1% → 2% +2VGK <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML MIN -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 54.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.7 – 2.8 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +31 Elo | VGK 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 2nd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +0.18th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.6% | Shot share | 53.9%3rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3292.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%24th of 32 |
| 3rd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 6th of 3210–7 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 32 |
| 18th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 32 |
| 7th of 321527 | Elo rating | 15219th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–17 | 11–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 6–24 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 18–21 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–9 VGK in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.
- Nov 16VGK 2 @ MIN 3Picked VGK 53%Miss
- May 1VGK 3 @ MIN 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 60%Hit
- Apr 29MIN 2 @ VGK 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 67%Hit
- Apr 26VGK 4 @ MIN 3PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Hit
- Apr 24VGK 2 @ MIN 5PlayoffsPicked VGK 59%Miss
- Apr 22MIN 5 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 68%Miss
- Apr 20MIN 2 @ VGK 4PlayoffsPicked VGK 69%Hit
- Mar 25VGK 5 @ MIN 1Picked VGK 67%Hit