Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals1
- Kaedan KorczakAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Blues- Oskar SundqvistGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Oskar SundqvistPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:27Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (7), Pavel Buchnevich (16)3–4
- P38:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (9)3–3
- P29:10Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (5)2–3
- P26:37Oskar Sundqvist Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (2), Mathieu Joseph (8)1–3
- P25:39Justin Faulk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (15), Tyler Tucker (6)1–2
- P110:39Alexey Toropchenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (7), Oskar Sundqvist (10)1–1
- P110:12Keegan Kolesar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (3), Kaedan Korczak (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:39Justin Faulk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (15), Tyler Tucker (6)VGK 1 – 2 STL · STL 44% → 63% +19STL 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P26:37Oskar Sundqvist Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (2), Mathieu Joseph (8)VGK 1 – 3 STL · STL 63% → 79% +16STL 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P29:10Mark Stone Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (5)VGK 2 – 3 STL · VGK 19% → 36% +17VGK 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P38:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Braeden Bowman (9)VGK 3 – 3 STL · VGK 23% → 54% +31VGK 23% → 54%+31 pts
- P318:27Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Jimmy Snuggerud (7), Pavel Buchnevich (16)VGK 3 – 4 STL · STL 49% → 99% +50STL 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 58%
- ML VGK -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- VGK -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | VGK: Carter Hart: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK 0 Elo | VGK 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.531st of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | −1.032nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.7% | Shot share | 46.8%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 3288.7% | Save percentage | 88.5%29th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 13th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 8–1429th of 32 |
| 20th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 32 |
| 11th of 321511 | Elo rating | 147226th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–27 | 18–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–26 | 1–17 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 17–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–18 | 20–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–2 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.