Nashville Predators at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Fedor SvechkovGoals1
- Nicolas HagueAssists2
- Nicolas HaguePoints2
Blues- Pavel BuchnevichGoals2
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Pavel BuchnevichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:03Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (15), Nicolas Hague (8)2–3
- P34:40Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (20), Philip Broberg (11)1–3
- P118:14Pavel Buchnevich Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (19)1–2
- P111:41Tyson Jost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Hague (7)1–1
- P18:45Brayden Schenn Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (13), Dalibor Dvorsky (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:45Brayden Schenn Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam Fowler (13), Dalibor Dvorsky (3)NSH 0 – 1 STL · STL 52% → 67% +15STL 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P111:41Tyson Jost Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Nicolas Hague (7)NSH 1 – 1 STL · NSH 33% → 48% +16NSH 33% → 48%+16 pts
- P118:14Pavel Buchnevich Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (19)NSH 1 – 2 STL · STL 51% → 68% +17STL 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P34:40Pavel Buchnevich Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (20), Philip Broberg (11)NSH 1 – 3 STL · STL 77% → 93% +16STL 77% → 93%+16 pts
- P312:03Fedor Svechkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (15), Nicolas Hague (8)NSH 2 – 3 STL · NSH 2% → 15% +13NSH 2% → 15%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML NSH -102 / STL -118
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- STL: Elo 56.7%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- STL -107
- NSH +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.7 – 2.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +47 Elo | STL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 47.9%24th of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.3%30th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 22nd of 326–8 | Road vs home | 7–1329th of 32 |
| 1st of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Elo rating | 147724th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–19 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 5–4 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.