St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Dalibor DvorskyGoals1
- Matthew KesselAssists1
- Dalibor DvorskyPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals3
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:06Valeri Nichushkin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Malinski (19), Nathan MacKinnon (36)1–6
- P314:32Dalibor Dvorsky Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Kessel (1)1–5
- P29:41Brock Nelson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (33), Nathan MacKinnon (35)0–5
- P14:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (32), Gabriel Landeskog (15)0–4
- P13:26Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (12), Brent Burns (15)0–3
- P13:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (11), Devon Toews (12)0–2
- P11:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Brock Nelson (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Brock Nelson (14)STL 0 – 1 COL · COL 75% → 85% +10COL 75% → 85%+10 pts
- P13:13Nathan MacKinnon Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (11), Devon Toews (12)STL 0 – 2 COL · COL 85% → 92% +7COL 85% → 92%+7 pts
- P13:26Valeri Nichushkin Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Manson (12), Brent Burns (15)STL 0 – 3 COL · COL 92% → 96% +4COL 92% → 96%+4 pts
- P14:39Nathan MacKinnon Goal (34) Slap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (32), Gabriel Landeskog (15)STL 0 – 4 COL · COL 96% → 99% +2COL 96% → 99%+2 pts
- P29:41Brock Nelson Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (33), Nathan MacKinnon (35)STL 0 – 5 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- COL 75%
- ML STL +285 / COL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- COL: Elo 71.7%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- COL -301
- STL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 4.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1603 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −4 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +161 Elo | COL 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 73.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 32nd of 322.5 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 32nd of 32−0.9 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 27th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 56.0%2nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 32 |
| 28th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 16–21st of 32 |
| 30th of 321493 | Opponent Elo | 149332nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321475 | Elo rating | 16031st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–22 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–17 | 20–17 |
| Underdog | 17–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 16–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–4 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.