Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Avalanche- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:15Cale Makar Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (15), Brock Nelson (13)2–5
- P318:23Nathan MacKinnon Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (17)2–4
- P34:58Joel Armia Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (19)2–3
- P217:30Brock Nelson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (3), Samuel Girard (8)1–3
- P213:21Martin Necas Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (14), Nathan MacKinnon (34)1–2
- P25:15Corey Perry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (12), Joel Edmundson (12)1–1
- P19:24Jack Drury Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:24Jack Drury Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (10)LA 0 – 1 COL · COL 65% → 78% +13COL 65% → 78%+13 pts
- P25:15Corey Perry Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Fiala (12), Joel Edmundson (12)LA 1 – 1 COL · LA 21% → 37% +16LA 21% → 37%+16 pts
- P213:21Martin Necas Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Gabriel Landeskog (14), Nathan MacKinnon (34)LA 1 – 2 COL · COL 61% → 80% +19COL 61% → 80%+19 pts
- P217:30Brock Nelson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (3), Samuel Girard (8)LA 1 – 3 COL · COL 80% → 93% +12COL 80% → 93%+12 pts
- P34:58Joel Armia Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (19)LA 2 – 3 COL · LA 5% → 17% +13LA 5% → 17%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- COL 66%
- ML LA +185 / COL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- COL: Elo 66.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -197
- LA +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.3 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −5 | LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +120 Elo | COL 66.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 68.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 4.01st of 32 |
| 3rd of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.31st of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.2% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 92.0%1st of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 32 |
| 8th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 15–21st of 32 |
| 27th of 321494 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 32 |
| 12th of 321512 | Elo rating | 16011st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 15–22 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 14–23 | 15–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–5 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.