Seattle Kraken at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists2
- Eeli TolvanenPoints2
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals1
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:45Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Brandt Clarke (11), Drew Doughty (10)3–2
- P216:13Kevin Fiala Goal (13) Backhand, assists: none3–1
- P216:02Ben Meyers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (4), Eeli Tolvanen (17)3–0
- P27:26Freddy Gaudreau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (16), Josh Mahura (2)2–0
- P21:10Jordan Eberle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (16), Chandler Stephenson (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:10Jordan Eberle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (16), Chandler Stephenson (13)SEA 1 – 0 LA · SEA 37% → 55% +18SEA 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P27:26Freddy Gaudreau Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (16), Josh Mahura (2)SEA 2 – 0 LA · SEA 58% → 76% +18SEA 58% → 76%+18 pts
- P216:02Ben Meyers Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Oleksiak (4), Eeli Tolvanen (17)SEA 3 – 0 LA · SEA 82% → 93% +11SEA 82% → 93%+11 pts
- P216:13Kevin Fiala Goal (13) Backhand, assists: noneSEA 3 – 1 LA · LA 7% → 18% +11LA 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P38:45Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (7) Wrap-around, assists: Brandt Clarke (11), Drew Doughty (10)SEA 3 – 2 LA · LA 7% → 25% +19LA 7% → 25%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- LA 66%
- ML SEA +180 / LA -218
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- LA: Elo 59.7%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LA -192
- SEA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | LA and SEA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −13 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) · LA: Pheonix Copley: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +68 Elo | LA 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 2.530th of 32 |
| 16th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 29th of 3247.0% | Shot share | 51.0%12th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 23rd of 327–10 | Road vs home | 4–1131st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 32 |
| 30th of 321459 | Elo rating | 151012th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–13 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 4–18 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 LA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.