Seattle Kraken at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Kaapo KakkoAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Ducks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Jacob TroubaAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:24Jordan Eberle Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (15)3–1
- P310:04Jordan Eberle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (15), Kaapo Kakko (5)2–1
- P215:40Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (11), Jackson LaCombe (16)1–1
- P24:49Freddy Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (8), Kaapo Kakko (4)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:49Freddy Gaudreau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (8), Kaapo Kakko (4)SEA 1 – 0 ANA · SEA 41% → 59% +19SEA 41% → 59%+19 pts
- P215:40Mikael Granlund Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Jacob Trouba (11), Jackson LaCombe (16)SEA 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 35% → 58% +22ANA 35% → 58%+22 pts
- P310:04Jordan Eberle Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (15), Kaapo Kakko (5)SEA 2 – 1 ANA · SEA 45% → 78% +33SEA 45% → 78%+33 pts
- P319:24Jordan Eberle Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (15)SEA 3 – 1 ANA · SEA >99% → >99% +0SEA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ducks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- ANA 62%
- ML SEA +154 / ANA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ANA: Elo 61.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ANA -165
- SEA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.6 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +4 | SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +79 Elo | ANA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 65.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ANA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.5 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.6 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 28th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 51.3%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.7%28th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 26th of 326–10 | Road vs home | 12–52nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 32 |
| 30th of 321454 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–13 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–8 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–2 ANA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.