Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Leo CarlssonAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Kings- Alex LaferriereGoals3
- Anze KopitarAssists3
- Alex LaferrierePoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:15Alex Laferriere Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Brandt Clarke (13), Anze Kopitar (14)1–6
- P34:24Alex Laferriere Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Brian Dumoulin (8), Anze Kopitar (13)1–5
- P210:02Mason McTavish Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (25), Beckett Sennecke (18)1–4
- P119:02Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (12), Andrei Kuzmenko (5)0–4
- P110:21Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (18), Anze Kopitar (12)0–3
- P13:56Trevor Moore Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Brian Dumoulin (7), Cody Ceci (6)0–2
- P13:03Drew Doughty Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (16), Corey Perry (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:03Drew Doughty Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Quinton Byfield (16), Corey Perry (9)ANA 0 – 1 LA · LA 53% → 68% +14LA 53% → 68%+14 pts
- P13:56Trevor Moore Goal (5) Deflected, assists: Brian Dumoulin (7), Cody Ceci (6)ANA 0 – 2 LA · LA 68% → 80% +12LA 68% → 80%+12 pts
- P110:21Alex Laferriere Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (18), Anze Kopitar (12)ANA 0 – 3 LA · LA 81% → 90% +9LA 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P119:02Quinton Byfield Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Brandt Clarke (12), Andrei Kuzmenko (5)ANA 0 – 4 LA · LA 92% → 97% +5LA 92% → 97%+5 pts
- P210:02Mason McTavish Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (25), Beckett Sennecke (18)ANA 1 – 4 LA · ANA 2% → 5% +4ANA 2% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- LA 53%
- ML ANA +105 / LA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- LA: Elo 58.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LA -114
- ANA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.2 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −4 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · LA: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +59 Elo | LA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.531st of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 7th of 3251.7% | Shot share | 51.2%11th of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 18th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 4–1232nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 32 |
| 26th of 321475 | Elo rating | 150712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ANA |  LA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–18 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 4–19 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–14 | 13–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ANA 3–6 LA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.