Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Peyton KrebsGoals1
- Beck MalenstynAssists1
- Alex TuchPoints1
Blues- Jimmy SnuggerudGoals1
- Colton ParaykoAssists1
- Jimmy SnuggerudPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Peyton Krebs Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (3)4–2
- P31:46Zach Benson Goal (4) Batted, assists: Jack Quinn (15), Ryan McLeod (15)3–2
- P215:17Alex Tuch Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (13)2–2
- P18:09Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (3), Colton Parayko (11)1–2
- P15:08Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (4), Jordan Kyrou (9)1–1
- P12:19Noah Ostlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:19Noah Ostlund Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Norris (7)BUF 1 – 0 STL · BUF 51% → 65% +14BUF 51% → 65%+14 pts
- P15:08Brayden Schenn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Otto Stenberg (4), Jordan Kyrou (9)BUF 1 – 1 STL · STL 34% → 49% +15STL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- P18:09Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robby Fabbri (3), Colton Parayko (11)BUF 1 – 2 STL · STL 49% → 64% +15STL 49% → 64%+15 pts
- P215:17Alex Tuch Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (13)BUF 2 – 2 STL · BUF 29% → 51% +22BUF 29% → 51%+22 pts
- P31:46Zach Benson Goal (4) Batted, assists: Jack Quinn (15), Ryan McLeod (15)BUF 3 – 2 STL · BUF 51% → 75% +24BUF 51% → 75%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML BUF -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- BUF: Elo 47.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 2.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +2 | BUF: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +19 Elo | STL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.532nd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.932nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.1% | Shot share | 47.7%24th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 88.5%30th of 32 |
| 2nd of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 27th of 327–11 | Road vs home | 8–1328th of 32 |
| 8th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149232nd of 32 |
| 17th of 321494 | Elo rating | 147923rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 1–17 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 17–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 18–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.