Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Morgan GeekieAssists1
- David PastrnakPoints1
Sabres- Mattias SamuelssonGoals1
- Mattias SamuelssonAssists2
- Mattias SamuelssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:46Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (11), Tage Thompson (16)1–4
- P27:54Mattias Samuelsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (14), Bowen Byram (10)1–3
- P23:12Peyton Krebs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (15), Mattias Samuelsson (12)1–2
- P21:39Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (13), Mattias Samuelsson (11)1–1
- P111:56David Pastrnak Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:56David Pastrnak Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (15)BOS 1 – 0 BUF · BOS 45% → 61% +16BOS 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P21:39Ryan McLeod Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (13), Mattias Samuelsson (11)BOS 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 36% → 54% +18BUF 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P23:12Peyton Krebs Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (15), Mattias Samuelsson (12)BOS 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 54% → 71% +17BUF 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:54Mattias Samuelsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (14), Bowen Byram (10)BOS 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 72% → 86% +14BUF 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P319:46Josh Norris Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Peyton Krebs (11), Tage Thompson (16)BOS 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 100% → 100% +0BUF 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 55%
- ML BOS +114 / BUF -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- BUF: Elo 57.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -123
- BOS +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.1 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −2 | BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +51 Elo | BUF 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 62.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.5% | Shot share | 48.8%20th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 11–75th of 32 |
| 5th of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 149018th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–13 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 23–8 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–16 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–4 BUF in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.