Montreal Canadiens at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Lane HutsonAssists3
- Noah DobsonPoints3
Bruins- Alex SteevesGoals1
- Mason LohreiAssists1
- Alex SteevesPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:22Juraj Slafkovský Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (30)6–2
- P310:09Nick Suzuki Goal (11) Batted, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (14), Noah Dobson (17)5–2
- P38:43Cole Caufield Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (16), Ivan Demidov (21)4–2
- P37:04Zachary Bolduc Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (31), Lane Hutson (29)3–2
- P21:58Ivan Demidov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P119:42Alex Steeves Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (26), Viktor Arvidsson (8)1–2
- P112:25Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (12)1–1
- P111:08Samuel Blais Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (28), Noah Dobson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:08Samuel Blais Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lane Hutson (28), Noah Dobson (15)MTL 1 – 0 BOS · MTL 48% → 64% +16MTL 48% → 64%+16 pts
- P112:25Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (12)MTL 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 36% → 52% +16BOS 36% → 52%+16 pts
- P119:42Alex Steeves Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (26), Viktor Arvidsson (8)MTL 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 52% → 69% +17BOS 52% → 69%+17 pts
- P21:58Ivan Demidov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 2 – 2 BOS · MTL 31% → 48% +17MTL 31% → 48%+17 pts
- P37:04Zachary Bolduc Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (31), Lane Hutson (29)MTL 3 – 2 BOS · MTL 49% → 78% +29MTL 49% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bruins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML MTL +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- MTL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.2 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +3 | MTL: Jacob Fowler: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈47 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.29th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.013th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3248.2% | Shot share | 47.5%26th of 32 |
| 29th of 3288.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 6th of 329–7 | Road vs home | 12–87th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 15065th of 32 |
| 18th of 321487 | Elo rating | 148620th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–19 | 25–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–15 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 23–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–13 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 2–6 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.