Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Reid SchaeferGoals1
- Luke EvangelistaAssists2
- Luke EvangelistaPoints2
Golden Knights- Ben HuttonGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists2
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P211:52Michael Bunting Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Blankenburg (13), Erik Haula (16)4–2
- P116:21Reid Schaefer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (12), Michael McCarron (6)3–2
- P115:37Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (15), Luke Evangelista (23)2–2
- P111:20Nick Perbix Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (22)1–2
- P19:06Ben Hutton Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Tomas Hertl (15), Pavel Dorofeyev (13)0–2
- P15:35Mark Stone Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (12), Noah Hanifin (12)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:35Mark Stone Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (12), Noah Hanifin (12)NSH 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 60% → 74% +14VGK 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P111:20Nick Perbix Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Evangelista (22)NSH 1 – 2 VGK · NSH 14% → 26% +11NSH 14% → 26%+11 pts
- P115:37Steven Stamkos Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (15), Luke Evangelista (23)NSH 2 – 2 VGK · NSH 25% → 41% +15NSH 25% → 41%+15 pts
- P116:21Reid Schaefer Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Skjei (12), Michael McCarron (6)NSH 3 – 2 VGK · NSH 41% → 58% +17NSH 41% → 58%+17 pts
- P211:52Michael Bunting Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Nick Blankenburg (13), Erik Haula (16)NSH 4 – 2 VGK · NSH 63% → 81% +18NSH 63% → 81%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 61%
- ML NSH +145 / VGK -175
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- VGK: Elo 62.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- VGK -156
- NSH +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.6 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −2 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +90 Elo | VGK 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 66.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.116th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.111th of 32 |
| 17th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 53.5%3rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 88.9%27th of 32 |
| 4th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 22nd of 327–9 | Road vs home | 8–1125th of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 29th of 321464 | Elo rating | 151610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 11–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–25 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 3–3 VGK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.