Nashville Predators at Utah Mammoth, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Steven StamkosGoals2
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists2
- Steven StamkosPoints3
Mammoth- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Dylan GuentherAssists1
- Dylan GuentherPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:17Steven Stamkos Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (23), Nick Perbix (5)4–3
- P311:39Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (22), Luke Evangelista (21)3–3
- P34:02Dylan Guenther Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (7), Barrett Hayton (5)2–3
- P27:51Luke Evangelista Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (4), Nick Blankenburg (12)2–2
- P23:41Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (21), Sean Durzi (8)1–2
- P19:51Roman Josi Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (14), Steven Stamkos (8)1–1
- P15:48JJ Peterka Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (15), Clayton Keller (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:41Mikhail Sergachev Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Schmaltz (21), Sean Durzi (8)NSH 1 – 2 UTA · UTA 55% → 72% +17UTA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P27:51Luke Evangelista Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Jost (4), Nick Blankenburg (12)NSH 2 – 2 UTA · NSH 27% → 45% +18NSH 27% → 45%+18 pts
- P34:02Dylan Guenther Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Lawson Crouse (7), Barrett Hayton (5)NSH 2 – 3 UTA · UTA 53% → 79% +25UTA 53% → 79%+25 pts
- P311:39Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (22), Luke Evangelista (21)NSH 3 – 3 UTA · NSH 15% → 48% +33NSH 15% → 48%+33 pts
- P313:17Steven Stamkos Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (23), Nick Perbix (5)NSH 4 – 3 UTA · NSH 48% → 85% +37NSH 48% → 85%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mammoth 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTA 56%
- ML NSH +120 / UTA -142
- Pre-line forecast
- UTA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- UTA: Elo 57.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- UTA -129
- NSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.6 – 2.9 UTA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | UTA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −11 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · UTA: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTA +55 Elo | UTA 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTA 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTA 59.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 32 |
| 25th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.19th of 32 |
| 17th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 53.2%4th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.1%25th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 26th of 326–9 | Road vs home | 9–713th of 32 |
| 1st of 321510 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 32 |
| 30th of 321462 | Elo rating | 149517th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 18–19 | 17–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–2 UTA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.
