Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Brett HowdenAssists1
- Mark StonePoints1
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals3
- Andre BurakovskyAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (6), Artyom Levshunov (18)2–3
- P311:36Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (11), Andre Burakovsky (19)2–2
- P20:43Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (30), Noah Hanifin (13)2–1
- P112:38Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (7), Andre Burakovsky (18)1–1
- P110:40Brandon Saad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (6), Alexander Holtz (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:40Brandon Saad Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (6), Alexander Holtz (2)VGK 1 – 0 CHI · VGK 68% → 81% +13VGK 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P112:38Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (7), Andre Burakovsky (18)VGK 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 19% → 32% +13CHI 19% → 32%+13 pts
- P20:43Mark Stone Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (30), Noah Hanifin (13)VGK 2 – 1 CHI · VGK 66% → 81% +15VGK 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P311:36Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (11), Andre Burakovsky (19)VGK 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 12% → 42% +30CHI 12% → 42%+30 pts
- OT1:18Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (6), Artyom Levshunov (18)VGK 2 – 3 CHI · CHI 45% → 91% +46CHI 45% → 91%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 70%
- ML VGK -265 / CHI +215
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 63.6%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- VGK -229
- CHI +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −21 | VGK: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.53 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +97 Elo | VGK 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 67.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.221st of 32 |
| 16th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.428th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.8% | Shot share | 45.6%31st of 32 |
| 28th of 3288.5% | Save percentage | 89.8%15th of 32 |
| 26th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 18th of 329–10 | Road vs home | 8–1228th of 32 |
| 19th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 10th of 321509 | Elo rating | 142531st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 11–28 | 29–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–27 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 29–11 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 5–2 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.