New York Islanders at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Maxim ShabanovAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Oliver MooreAssists2
- Oliver MoorePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Bo Horvat Goal Snap Shot1–0
- P219:57Nick Lardis Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (8), Ryan Greene (10)2–2
- P215:31Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (7), Artyom Levshunov (17)2–1
- P112:08Bo Horvat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (20), Matthew Schaefer (16)2–0
- P12:56Calum Ritchie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (10), Max Shabanov (8)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:56Calum Ritchie Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (10), Max Shabanov (8)NYI 1 – 0 CHI · NYI 55% → 69% +14NYI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P112:08Bo Horvat Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (20), Matthew Schaefer (16)NYI 2 – 0 CHI · NYI 70% → 82% +12NYI 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P215:31Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (7), Artyom Levshunov (17)NYI 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 11% → 26% +15CHI 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P219:57Nick Lardis Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Oliver Moore (8), Ryan Greene (10)NYI 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 24% → 47% +23CHI 24% → 47%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 55%
- ML NYI -135 / CHI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYI: Elo 54.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -123
- CHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +5 | NYI: David Rittich: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +30 Elo | NYI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.529th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 45.5%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 15th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 12th of 329–9 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 32 |
| 20th of 321486 | Elo rating | 142132nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–18 | 26–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 26–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.