Pittsburgh Penguins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Justin BrazeauGoals3
- Ryan SheaAssists3
- Justin BrazeauPoints3
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals1
- Sam LaffertyAssists1
- Tyler BertuzziPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (4)7–3
- P218:48Noel Acciari Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack St. Ivany (2), Blake Lizotte (4)7–2
- P213:30Wyatt Kaiser Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Greene (9), Connor Murphy (5)6–2
- P213:17Justin Brazeau Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Connor Dewar (6), Ryan Shea (14)6–1
- P212:20Justin Brazeau Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Ben Kindel (7), Ville Koivunen (3)5–1
- P210:50Nick Foligno Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Colton Dach (4), Sam Lafferty (1)4–1
- P112:03Bryan Rust Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (13), Blake Lizotte (3)4–0
- P18:20Justin Brazeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (13), Thomas Novak (12)3–0
- P17:19Bryan Rust Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Kris Letang (17)2–0
- P11:38Anthony Mantha Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack St. Ivany (1), Ryan Shea (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:38Anthony Mantha Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack St. Ivany (1), Ryan Shea (12)PIT 1 – 0 CHI · PIT 58% → 72% +14PIT 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P17:19Bryan Rust Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Kris Letang (17)PIT 2 – 0 CHI · PIT 72% → 84% +11PIT 72% → 84%+11 pts
- P18:20Justin Brazeau Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Anthony Mantha (13), Thomas Novak (12)PIT 3 – 0 CHI · PIT 84% → 92% +8PIT 84% → 92%+8 pts
- P112:03Bryan Rust Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Shea (13), Blake Lizotte (3)PIT 4 – 0 CHI · PIT 92% → 97% +4PIT 92% → 97%+4 pts
- P210:50Nick Foligno Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Colton Dach (4), Sam Lafferty (1)PIT 4 – 1 CHI · CHI 1% → 4% +3CHI 1% → 4%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Penguins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML PIT -155 / CHI +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -140
- CHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 2.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +10 | PIT: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +14 Elo | PIT 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 32 |
| 22nd of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.2% | Shot share | 45.4%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 90.1%12th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321–9 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 18th of 328–9 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 32 |
| 26th of 321496 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 32 |
| 28th of 321463 | Elo rating | 142631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–15 | 26–11 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 26–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.