Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Matt GrzelcykAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:52Carl Grundstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (16), Rasmus Ristolainen (1)3–1
- P218:30Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Artyom Levshunov (15)2–1
- P211:13Noah Cates Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (22), Jamie Drysdale (14)2–0
- P110:17Travis Konecny Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (22), Sean Couturier (15)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:17Travis Konecny Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (22), Sean Couturier (15)PHI 1 – 0 CHI · PHI 52% → 67% +15PHI 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P211:13Noah Cates Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (22), Jamie Drysdale (14)PHI 2 – 0 CHI · PHI 71% → 86% +15PHI 71% → 86%+15 pts
- P218:30Ryan Donato Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (7), Artyom Levshunov (15)PHI 2 – 1 CHI · CHI 11% → 26% +16CHI 11% → 26%+16 pts
- P317:52Carl Grundstrom Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (16), Rasmus Ristolainen (1)PHI 3 – 1 CHI · PHI 97% → >99% +3PHI 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / CHI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 45.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- CHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 2.7 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +9 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +32 Elo | CHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.426th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 45.2%31st of 32 |
| 17th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%11th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 20th of 327–8 | Road vs home | 7–924th of 32 |
| 6th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 32 |
| 25th of 321477 | Elo rating | 142631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–11 | 25–10 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 20–5 | 25–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 15–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.