Vancouver Canucks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Elias N. PetterssonAssists1
- Drew O'ConnorPoints1
Flyers- Nikita GrebenkinGoals1
- Rodrigo AbolsAssists2
- Nikita GrebenkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Drew O'Connor Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zeev Buium (13), Elias Pettersson (5)2–5
- P318:49Matvei Michkov Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (11)1–5
- P315:35Owen Tippett Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (13)1–4
- P313:05Max Sasson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (13), Tyler Myers (7)1–3
- P37:49Christian Dvorak Goal (8) Batted, assists: Trevor Zegras (21), Travis Konecny (21)0–3
- P35:58Carl Grundstrom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (4), Rodrigo Abols (3)0–2
- P213:13Nikita Grebenkin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (9), Rodrigo Abols (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:13Nikita Grebenkin Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Emil Andrae (9), Rodrigo Abols (2)VAN 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 75% +20PHI 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P35:58Carl Grundstrom Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Grebenkin (4), Rodrigo Abols (3)VAN 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 80% → 94% +14PHI 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P37:49Christian Dvorak Goal (8) Batted, assists: Trevor Zegras (21), Travis Konecny (21)VAN 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 96% → >99% +4PHI 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P313:05Max Sasson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (13), Tyler Myers (7)VAN 1 – 3 PHI · VAN <1% → 1% +1VAN <1% → 1%+1 pts
- P315:35Owen Tippett Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Cam York (13)VAN 1 – 4 PHI · PHI >99% → >99% +0PHI >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Flyers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML VAN +124 / PHI -148
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -134
- VAN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +9 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PHI: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +26 Elo | PHI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.110th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.7% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%18th of 32 |
| 14th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 10th of 3211–9 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 32 |
| 10th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 32 |
| 24th of 321479 | Elo rating | 147327th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–15 | 23–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 19–9 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.