Chicago Blackhawks at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Alex VlasicAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints2
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists3
- Mikko RantanenPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nick Lardis Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Ryan Donato Goal Backhand2–1
- P312:25Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (4), Alex Vlasic (6)3–3
- P311:18Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (25), Sam Steel (7)2–3
- P211:32Justin Hryckowian Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (24), Mikko Rantanen (39)2–2
- P210:37Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (16)2–1
- P111:31Nils Lundkvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (38), Wyatt Johnston (23)1–1
- P13:20Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (5), Landon Slaggert (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:31Nils Lundkvist Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (38), Wyatt Johnston (23)CHI 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 58% → 73% +15DAL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P210:37Jason Dickinson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Artyom Levshunov (16)CHI 2 – 1 DAL · CHI 32% → 52% +20CHI 32% → 52%+20 pts
- P211:32Justin Hryckowian Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (24), Mikko Rantanen (39)CHI 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 47% → 68% +20DAL 47% → 68%+20 pts
- P311:18Mikko Rantanen Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (25), Sam Steel (7)CHI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 60% → 89% +29DAL 60% → 89%+29 pts
- P312:25Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Murphy (4), Alex Vlasic (6)CHI 3 – 3 DAL · CHI 10% → 40% +30CHI 10% → 40%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 75%
- ML CHI +285 / DAL -360
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 75.9%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -301
- CHI +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +199 Elo | DAL 75.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 73.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.74th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.2% | Shot share | 47.3%27th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 32 |
| 31st of 326–13 | Road vs home | 12–62nd of 32 |
| 16th of 321499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 31st of 321422 | Elo rating | 15642nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–11 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 25–10 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–6 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.