Chicago Blackhawks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Capitals- Ryan LeonardGoals1
- Anthony BeauvillierAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Nick Foligno Goal Wrist Shot3–2
- SO0:00Andre Burakovsky Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Sonny Milano Goal Snap Shot3–2
- SO0:00Dylan Strome Goal Backhand3–2
- SO0:00Nick Lardis Goal Snap Shot3–2
- P311:18Ryan Leonard Goal (8) Batted, assists: Matt Roy (11), Anthony Beauvillier (6)2–2
- P24:24Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (12), Andre Burakovsky (17)2–1
- P14:46Dylan Strome Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)1–1
- P11:13Ryan Donato Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:13Ryan Donato Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (5)CHI 1 – 0 WSH · CHI 32% → 46% +14CHI 32% → 46%+14 pts
- P14:46Dylan Strome Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Ethen Frank (8), Trevor van Riemsdyk (5)CHI 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 68% +15WSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P24:24Teuvo Teravainen Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (12), Andre Burakovsky (17)CHI 2 – 1 WSH · CHI 35% → 54% +19CHI 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P311:18Ryan Leonard Goal (8) Batted, assists: Matt Roy (11), Anthony Beauvillier (6)CHI 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 22% → 57% +35WSH 22% → 57%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 69%
- ML CHI +205 / WSH -250
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 68.2%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- WSH -218
- CHI +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 3.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈46 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +132 Elo | WSH 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 70.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.45th of 32 |
| 31st of 3245.5% | Shot share | 51.3%8th of 32 |
| 15th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%8th of 32 |
| 29th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–13 | Road vs home | 12–99th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321422 | Elo rating | 15248th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–12 | 24–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 28–11 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22 | 21–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.