Dallas Stars at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists1
- Matt DuchenePoints2
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals2
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:42Matt Duchene Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (26), Jason Robertson (24)3–4
- P316:03Jason Robertson Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (40), Matt Duchene (4)2–4
- P33:58Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Connor Murphy (6)1–4
- P29:14Ilya Mikheyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (8)1–3
- P20:13Teuvo Teravainen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (16), Tyler Bertuzzi (11)1–2
- P114:42Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (8)1–1
- P111:48Artyom Levshunov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (15), Ryan Donato (7)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:48Artyom Levshunov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (15), Ryan Donato (7)DAL 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 39% → 55% +16CHI 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P114:42Mikko Rantanen Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Sam Steel (8)DAL 1 – 1 CHI · DAL 44% → 61% +17DAL 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P20:13Teuvo Teravainen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (16), Tyler Bertuzzi (11)DAL 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 40% → 58% +18CHI 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P29:14Ilya Mikheyev Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (8)DAL 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 61% → 79% +17CHI 61% → 79%+17 pts
- P33:58Ilya Mikheyev Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (8), Connor Murphy (6)DAL 1 – 4 CHI · CHI 89% → 97% +8CHI 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 62%
- ML DAL -185 / CHI +154
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -165
- CHI +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.1 – 2.4 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈48 weighted starts) · CHI: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +65 Elo | DAL 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+0.8 | Margin | −0.530th of 32 |
| 26th of 3247.4% | Shot share | 45.5%31st of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%14th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 32 |
| 1st of 3213–7 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321497 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321554 | Elo rating | 141932nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 17–23 | 27–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–23 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 8–0 | 27–11 |
| Overs–unders | 19–21 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–3 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.