Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Noah OstlundAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Stars- Mavrik BourqueGoals1
- Jason RobertsonAssists1
- Mavrik BourquePoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:35Tage Thompson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (5), Owen Power (8)4–1
- P39:21Tage Thompson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (15), Bowen Byram (11)3–1
- P217:05Bowen Byram Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (4), Alex Tuch (20)2–1
- P27:44Josh Doan Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (17)1–1
- P10:15Mavrik Bourque Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (23), Miro Heiskanen (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:15Mavrik Bourque Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (23), Miro Heiskanen (28)BUF 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 58% → 72% +13DAL 58% → 72%+13 pts
- P27:44Josh Doan Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (17)BUF 1 – 1 DAL · BUF 26% → 44% +18BUF 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P217:05Bowen Byram Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (4), Alex Tuch (20)BUF 2 – 1 DAL · BUF 45% → 68% +23BUF 45% → 68%+23 pts
- P39:21Tage Thompson Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (15), Bowen Byram (11)BUF 3 – 1 DAL · BUF 78% → 95% +17BUF 78% → 95%+17 pts
- P311:35Tage Thompson Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Ostlund (5), Owen Power (8)BUF 4 – 1 DAL · BUF 97% → >99% +3BUF 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 58%
- ML BUF +130 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -140
- BUF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +99 Elo | DAL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 65.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.2 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 32 |
| 17th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 32 |
| 13th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.92nd of 32 |
| 20th of 3249.5% | Shot share | 47.4%27th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 32 |
| 1st of 329–1 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 24th of 328–11 | Road vs home | 12–74th of 32 |
| 9th of 321503 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321498 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–19 | 17–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 9–22 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 8–0 |
| Overs–unders | 18–20 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 1–3 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.