New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Luke HughesAssists1
- Luke HughesPoints2
Blue Jackets- Charlie CoyleGoals1
- Boone JennerAssists1
- Charlie CoylePoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:45Luke Hughes Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (8), Ondrej Palat (6)3–2
- P33:44Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (13), Jonas Siegenthaler (3)2–2
- P32:49Nico Hischier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (17), Jack Hughes (11)1–2
- P213:41Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (11), Cole Sillinger (15)0–2
- P16:18Mason Marchment Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (17), Dysin Mayo (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:18Mason Marchment Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (17), Dysin Mayo (1)NJ 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 67% +15CBJ 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P213:41Charlie Coyle Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Boone Jenner (11), Cole Sillinger (15)NJ 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 72% → 87% +15CBJ 72% → 87%+15 pts
- P32:49Nico Hischier Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (17), Jack Hughes (11)NJ 1 – 2 CBJ · NJ 8% → 24% +16NJ 8% → 24%+16 pts
- P33:44Arseny Gritsyuk Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (13), Jonas Siegenthaler (3)NJ 2 – 2 CBJ · NJ 23% → 49% +26NJ 23% → 49%+26 pts
- P34:45Luke Hughes Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (8), Ondrej Palat (6)NJ 3 – 2 CBJ · NJ 49% → 76% +27NJ 49% → 76%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- CBJ 52%
- ML NJ -102 / CBJ -118
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.4 pts
- CBJ: Elo 61.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -107
- NJ +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.7 – 2.8 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +10 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +79 Elo | CBJ 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CBJ 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.120th of 32 |
| 14th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.325th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 32 |
| 13th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%17th of 32 |
| 18th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 32 |
| 13th of 3210–10 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 32 |
| 3rd of 321506 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 321481 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 14–25 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–20 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 18–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 6–3 CBJ in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.